Trump: Putin Ready for Deal on Ukraine – But at What Cost?

Tomorrow, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine. Ahead of the summit, Trump has declared that Putin is ready to make a deal. But the president’s remark that they might “divvy things up a bit” has already sent shockwaves through Kyiv and parts of Europe.

Trump believes there is a 75% chance that the summit will be successful. He suggests that American sanctions have prompted Putin to move. “I’ll know within the first two, three, four minutes whether it’s going to be a good or bad meeting,” he told the press.

If the outcome is positive, he points to a subsequent meeting between himself, Putin, and Zelensky as the true turning point. This potential three-way negotiation, according to Trump, might also take place in Alaska.

Peace Talks or Geopolitical Dystopia?

With words like “divvy things up”, Trump implies that Ukraine may have to accept territorial concessions. This could mean Russia gets territories it has not yet captured militarily. Although Trump later tried to downplay the comment, many interpret it as an open invitation to compromise at Ukraine’s expense.

At the same time, he emphasized that he will not let Putin dominate the conversation: “He can’t play games with me,” Trump told reporters, referring to his own experience and negotiation style.

Zelensky Under Pressure – Europe Holds Its Breath

Ukrainian President Zelensky spent Thursday in London, where he and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed how Europe and the US can best pressure Putin towards peace. “There is a visible chance for peace if Putin is serious,” Starmer said after the meeting.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that “security guarantees” will be crucial to any agreement. While Trump has previously dismissed this idea, signals from the White House suggest that European guarantees might be on the table.

For Zelensky, the choice is extremely difficult. If Putin only agrees to a partial ceasefire while Trump continues to push for a trilateral agreement, Ukraine could find itself caught in a moral and strategic vise.

What Does Putin Really Want?

From Moscow’s perspective, the goal is clear: the peace process should not only concern Ukraine but also the reestablishment of economic ties with the US. Among Putin’s delegates at the summit are the defense minister, the finance minister, and the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.

This raises the question: Is this a genuine peace process—or a geopolitical dystopia where Russia trades territory for economic relief? For Europe and Ukraine, the risk is that Trump might strike a deal over their heads.

With a joint press conference planned after Friday’s meeting, the stage is set for a dramatic 24 hours. All eyes are on Alaska, where Trump is set to rely on his instincts to determine whether peace is at hand—or whether confrontation will continue.

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