Fears of Ukraine’s Partition Cast Shadow Over Reconstruction

As drone attacks from Russia continue to escalate, concerns about the potential partition of Ukraine have grown among European leaders, who are currently gathered in Rome for the fourth international conference on the country’s reconstruction.

A new report suggests that up to one-third of Ukraine’s total reconstruction costs—equivalent to almost $200 billion—could potentially become Russia’s responsibility if Ukraine is forced to cede control of four disputed regions in the east as part of a future peace agreement. This economic dilemma creates a stark contrast between the desire for peace and the massive economic consequences.

Political Dilemmas Overshadow Economic Future

The prospect that Russia may have to bear the burden of rebuilding Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson also raises fears of a future marked by both political and economic division. For the eastern areas, which are already severely affected by the war, the future is likely to bring ongoing economic stagnation.

“If Kyiv decides to give up the four disputed regions to achieve peace, Russia will likely have to shoulder a significant portion of the reconstruction costs,” according to the assessment from the Italian think tank ISPI, based on analyses from the World Bank.

Drone Thunder Pushes Focus

But the long-term economic focus in Rome has also been disrupted by an acute crisis: Russia’s warfare against civilian targets through intensified drone attacks. Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized at the conference how Ukraine experienced yet another intense attack on Kyiv just hours before the meeting.

“Russia also prepared for this meeting with yet another massive attack on Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

Germany’s Friedrich Merz condemned the Russian drone attacks as “sheer terror against the civilian population” and stressed that pressure on Putin must be increased to bring him back to the negotiating table.

Frustration Over Lack of Results

Although the conference in Rome was primarily intended to attract private investments for Ukraine’s reconstruction, the results so far have been sparse. Former U.S. envoy to Ukraine, Kurt Volker, criticizes that the many international conferences have yet to lead to concrete progress.

“Previous reconstruction conferences have gathered thousands of experts and produced big ideas but no real follow-up,” says Volker. He now calls for a permanent organization to promote private investment.

Regardless of the political and economic discussions, one thing is clear: the fear of a partition of Ukraine continues to overshadow the hope for a sustainable reconstruction.

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